The Genetic Genealogy Market, Part II
Yesterday, I looked at the size of the Genetic Genealogy market, and concluded that as of November 2007, there had been as many (or perhaps ‘at least’) 600,000 to 700,000 genetic genealogy tests performed, with 80,000 to 100,000 new tests per year. As the footnoteMaven mentioned, it might be interesting to see if we could turn those numbers into dollar amounts.
The following is a very rough attempt to translate the numbers into market value, with the following caveats: (1) I am not an economist, and I haven’t taken an economics class since high school; (2) the numbers do not take into account testing upgrades, which are offered by a number of companies; (3) the numbers do not take into account sequencing of the entire mitochondrial genome, specialized allele tests, or combination tests (e.g. Y-DNA and mtDNA) and; (4) the average cost of testing only reflects the companies included in yesterday’s accounting, and do not include the free SMGF test.
Three averages:
1. Autosomal DNA testing = $333.00 (Range is $184 – $650)
2. Y-DNA testing = $237 (Range is $107.50 – $375)
3. mtDNA testing = $211 (Range is $107.50 – $375)
So, if there have been 600,000 tests, let’s assume that 1/3rd were autosomal, 1/3rd were Y-DNA, and 1/3rd were mtDNA. That works out to $66.6 million for autosomal tests, $47.4 million for Y-DNA tests, and $42.4 million for mtDNA tests. That is a total of $156.2 million, which represents the total value of the market from its beginnings through November 2007.
But how much will the market be worth in 2008? Let’s assume that there will be 100,000 new tests in 2008, and that they will be equally divided among autosomal, Y-DNA, and mtDNA tests. That works out to $11.1 million for autosomal, $7.9 million for Y-DNA, and $7.0 million for mtDNA – a total of $26 million per year.
What do you think? Could the genetic genealogy market really be worth $26 million a year? Do my calculations undervalue the market? And if there are any actual economists out there who might want to comment on my analysis, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
P.S. – Yesterday I received an email from someone who pointed out that many people buy tests from multiple companies, and the 600,000 to 700,000 doesn’t reflect that. I agree, but given the number of companies that I don’t have numbers for, the numbers are likely to cancel each other out. Additionally, today’s figures would of course not be affected by buying tests from more than one company.
Feel free to leave a comment below.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
World Vital Records I’ve been reading Blaine Bettinger’s series on The Genetic Genealogy Marketplace (Part 1 andPart II) with [IMG Dna_toys] great interest and am a bit surprised by a few things. The first is where Blaine estimates that the total number of people tested falls somewhere between 600,000 – 700,000 people.
November 9th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
The Genetic Genealogy Market, Part II” I completely forgot to mention these articles, and I am terribly sorry for my oversight. Both of these articles are at Blaine Bettinger’s The Genetic Genealogist.
November 19th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
putting all their genetic information online. (One is Esther Dyson of course) Meanwhile, plenty of other companies are doing genetic testing mostly on genealogy grounds. The Genetic Genealogist Blog estimates that some 600,000 tests have been done andthey are worth about $300 each. but for an annual market, that’s only $25m. The Genetic Genealogist Blog also has a long list of those genetic companies. Finally, while there’s all this excitement about doing comprehensive DNA testing, DNADirect has been offering a direct to consumer service for a couple of years which
November 7th, 2007 at 11:45 am
2 things from a new reader –
-What companies produce the tests or provide equipment/reagents (could be a good investing opp.)
-Is there any site you know that compares the different companies in terms of features or quality? I would like to get tested but there are so many that do it now so I am not sure who to choose. Thanks.
November 8th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
The Genetic Genealogy Market
Very interesting posts by Blaine Bettinger, The Genetic Genealogist:
In conclusion, given the numbers revealed from the above sources in addition to the traditional figure of 460,000, there have been at least 591,500 kits sold and/or DNA samples tested…
November 8th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Rob d,
I personally have the best experiences with Family Tree DNA. I also wrote a page explaining all about Genetic Genealogy:
http://www.dirkschweitzer.net/DNATests.html
September 19th, 2008 at 4:07 am
[...] been reading Blaine Bettinger’s series on The Genetic Genealogy Marketplace (Part 1 and Part II) with great interest and am a bit surprised by a few things. The first is where Blaine [...]
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:35 pm
[...] grounds. The Genetic Genealogist Blog estimates that some 600,000 tests have been done and they are worth about $300 each. but for an annual market, that’s only $25m. The Genetic Genealogist Blog also has a long list of those genetic [...]
November 28th, 2010 at 3:21 am
I am not an expert but have a deep interest in genetics according to me this was great.
January 5th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
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