How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market?
I was recently having a discussion with someone about the size of the genetic testing market, and I mentioned the number of people who had already paid for genetic genealogy testing. This oft-repeated number, 460,000, is the addition of two figures from a short 2006 EMBO article (“Genetic Genealogy Goes Global” EMBO 1072 (2006)):
- “Companies such as Oxford Ancestors, Family Tree DNA and DNAPrint Genomics have attracted more than 300,000 customers in the past six years.”
- “During the first 15 months of the five-year [Genographic] project, 160,000 people signed on, far more than had been anticipated.”
So, 300,000 + 160,000 = 460,000. A year later, however, these numbers are obsolete and I wanted to bring them as up-to-date as possible. To do this, I took the 2006 EMBO papers and scoured the internet for testing numbers revealed by any of the genetic genealogy testing firms. The results suggest that the current number is much higher than 460,000. My findings are below:
1. Oxford Ancestors, FTDNA, and DNAPrint Genomics = 300,000 up to November 2006. Although I am not certain of the accuracy of this number from the 2006 EMBO article, I decided to use it as a starting point.
2. FTDNA sells 30,000 kits per year as of 2007 (source), so I added 30,000 to represent November 2006 to November 2007.
3. Genographic Project – By October 27th, DNA has been collected from 225,000 individuals, with 1,000 kits sold per week (source), so I added 226,000.
4. African Ancestry – As of May 2007, African Ancestry had tested 10,000 individuals (source), so I added 10,000.
5. Sorenson Genomics – As of 2006, the company had sold 1,500 testing kits in Asia through affiliates (source), so I added 1,500.
6. Genomac in Prague – As of June 2007, this company had tested 5,000 individuals (source), so I added 5,000.
7. Relative Genetics – As of 2002, this company had 19,000 genetic genealogy sequences in its database (source). I’m not sure if they were all from customers, and I’m not sure how much growth they experienced in the intervening 5 years. Thus, to be conservative, I added just 19,000.
8. I wasn’t sure whether or not to add SMGF, which as of 2006 had collected over 60,000 DNA samples and genealogical charts (source). This would not reflect a paid part of the market, but might represent people who would be interested in further genetic genealogy testing.
In conclusion, given the numbers revealed from the above sources in addition to the traditional figure of 460,000, there have been at least 591,500 kits sold and/or DNA samples tested. If I add in the SMGF numbers, it rises to 651,500. Given my research, I believe that if the 300,000 number from the EMBO article is correct, the number of people who have undergone genetic genealogy testing might be as high as 600,000 to 700,000 people. Additionally, this number appears to be growing by as much as 80,000 to 100,000 per year. My confidence is these numbers is boosted by the fact that I do not have information for a number of companies that offer genetic genealogy testing. As the interest in genetic genealogy grows, I predict that the 1 millionth genetic genealogy customer will push the “buy” button as early as 2009.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
et/ou échantillons ADN testés. De plus, ce chiffre semble augmenter de 80 000 à 100 000 par an. Au vu de l’intérêt grandissant de la généalogie génétique, je prédis qu’un million de généalogistes vont “se faire tester†avant 2009.(lire l’article…)Cela fait un total de 156,2 millions de $, qui représente la valeur du marché depuis ses débuts jusqu’en novembre 2007. A combien ce marché s’élévera-t-il en 2008 ? Supposons qu’il y aura 100 000 nouveaux tests en 2008, et qu
November 8th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
World Vital Records I’ve been reading Blaine Bettinger’s series on The Genetic Genealogy Marketplace (Part 1and Part II) with [IMG Dna_toys] great interest and am a bit surprised by a few things. The first is where Blaine estimates that the total number of people tested falls somewhere between 600,000 – 700,000 people.
November 9th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market?
November 19th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
and includes 10 people who are putting all their genetic information online. (One is Esther Dyson of course) Meanwhile, plenty of other companies are doing genetic testing mostly on genealogy grounds. The Genetic Genealogist Blog estimates that some600,000 testshave been done and they are worth about $300 each. but for an annual market, that’s only $25m. The Genetic Genealogist Blog also has a long list of those genetic companies. Finally, while there’s all this excitement about doing comprehensive DNA
November 6th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Dr. DNA:
How very interesting! Now if you took an average of the cost per test for each company discussed and multiplied it by the number of tests, it would be even more interesting to see just what our DNA is worth.
Show me the money!
fM
November 6th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
fM,
Stay tuned! wink wink
November 7th, 2007 at 3:05 am
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November 7th, 2007 at 5:54 am
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November 8th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
Dr. DNA:
Thank you for all your hard work into converting my question into dollar amounts.
Were you to have overvalued/undervalued the dollar totals, it is still a staggering amount of money.
So, puzzle me this. Are we getting our money’s worth?
fM
November 18th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
[...] (ACTA2) identified as causal in at least a sub-set of cases of thoracic aortic disease. Finally, The Genetic Geneologist examined the potential size of the genetic testing [...]
November 26th, 2007 at 3:01 am
[...] their ancestry or to expand their known family trees, according to Science magazine.†I recently estimated that number to be [...]
November 27th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
[...] How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market? (The Genetic Genealogist ) “The number of people who have undergone genetic genealogy testing might be as high as 600,000 to 700,000 people. Additionally, this number appears to be growing by as much as 80,000 to 100,000 per year. …” [...]
January 4th, 2008 at 3:01 am
[...] to my recent estimate, as many as 600,000 to 700,000 genetic genealogy tests have been sold in the United States since [...]
June 20th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
[...] been reading Blaine Bettinger’s series on The Genetic Genealogy Marketplace (Part 1 and Part II) with great interest and am a bit surprised by a few things. The first is where [...]
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
[...] doing genetic testing mostly on genealogy grounds. The Genetic Genealogist Blog estimates that some 600,000 tests have been done and they are worth about $300 each. but for an annual market, that’s only $25m. [...]
November 13th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
[...] After years of experience in this field, I am a proponent of genetic genealogy testing, a scientific endeavor that has been utilized by as many as 500,000 to 800,000 customers. [...]
January 7th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
[...] taken a genetic genealogy test and made the results available. However, given that as many as 500,000 to 800,000 people have already undergone genetic genealogy testing and as many as 50,000 to 100,000 people try [...]
January 25th, 2009 at 9:15 am
[...] that 651,600 people have taken a genetic genealogy test, based on my research (see “How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market?“) from November 2007. I think that the final number is bigger as of January 2009, probably [...]
February 12th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
[...] genealogy companies and that the number was increasing by 80,000 to 100,000 kits per year (see “How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market?â€). I ended that article with a prediction: “As the interest in genetic genealogy grows, I [...]
March 25th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
It means we can make money with out DNA, but i think it is not worth to make money in any form by using some from our body. Do you think this is ethical?
At the last I must appreciate that your post is unique and I find it very useful for the people who like to take it that way. Congratulation on your success and hard work.
With Blessing,
HudHud
HudHud’s last blog post..Make Money Selling Hot Items Online
June 19th, 2009 at 6:51 am
Whoah, so DNA can turn into a running Gold Mine? haha.. pretty cool!
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September 30th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
[...] “How Big is the Genetic Genealogy Market?“ [...]
November 16th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Hello – have you posted any more recent information on this topic? I am looking for the size of the genealogical DNA market as of now 11/16/09. I was hoping to get more recent numbers. Any resources would be helpful. Thanks.
April 14th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
[...] “How Big Is the Genetic Genealogy Market?”, The Genetic Genealogist, accessed 19 Feb [...]
May 29th, 2011 at 7:24 pm
[...] growth that Family History has enjoyed. At the end of 2007, genetic genealogist Blaine Bettinger estimated that as many as 700,000 people had undertaken a DNA test for genetic genealogy and the figure was [...]